Risk factor

In risk management, a risk factor is a source of risk which is classified in probable generic inherent risks with an aim of facilitating the evaluation or the attenuation of the risks.

Classification

One can bring the concept of risk factor closer to the concept of danger (defined by AFNOR) or of danger, term frequently used in the field of the occupational hazards;

Localization

A risk factor can be localized according to its origin:

Endogenous : generated by the organization itself or inside the perimeter which it controls (for example: a fascinating fire birth in the buildings of the company),

Exogenic : generated outside the perimeter of control of the company (for example: a strike with occupation in one establishing close, blocking the access of the industrial park where is established the company);

Nature of the phenomenon

The risk factor can be with character:

Economic : coming from a sharp variation of an economic parameter concerning the Environment of the Organization,

Natural , i.e. resulting from the forces of nature (Storm, Earthquake, Dryness, Flood, even if one speaks sometimes about origin Anthropique nowadays to qualify the recrudescence of the climatic accidents, or of Inondation S, Sécheresse S, phenomena of erosion or landslides induced by the drainage and the modification of the payage and the ecosystems by agriculture and/or town planning),

Operational , i.e. not resulting directly from a human act, but from productive activities developed by him, which correspond then at the risks of Accident on technical installations,

Human , i.e. whose release is due to the action of the man (for example: a fire in a warehouse following an accident);

Systemic , i.e. whose release is due to the interaction of the various components of the ecosystems (for example: a slow chemical reaction or forces, a stock exchange ace,…);

In reality, a Risque always comes from a combination of these natures of phenomena, and comprises necessarily a not easily classable dimension Culturelle.

The human factor can be:

is involuntary : it is about a consecutive error to tiredness or a cognitive Biais, of a Omission, or an act caused by Others with a malevolent intention (bad transmission of Information,…),

is voluntary and Conscient, on behalf of a man or of a human group, where one can distinguish for example:

the type “crafty person”: seemingly legitimate action, which modifies the system to make in the short run it more powerful, but which omits to document according to the procedures quality in force, so that the following teams are Inconsciente S of the danger, or even which more or less voluntarily neglects a problem (see the example of the Bogue of the year 2000); it can also be a question of fallacious Raisonnements (voluntary);
the malevolent type: it is about an intention to harm, of a will to adapt the goods of others, of a verbal, consecutive aggression with for example with cognitive Biais S or with fallacious Raisonnements… It acts in theory of illegal acts, including the Terrorisme.

The human factor can obviously comprise a dimension important Culturelle, which appears by different cognitive Biais S or fallacious or erroneous Raisonnements.

Some examples of risk factors

In finance

The Derivative products were conceived to decrease the Risque S of exchange and Interest rate. However, the Volatilité of these new finance departments is itself a risk factor, because the conditions of Transparence of these products in certain types of transactions (Private in particular) can induce risks of financial instability. See: Derived Financiarisation, .

In right

The complexification of the Droit is a risk factor, insofar as the multiplication of the codes and laws, their possible inconsistencies, decrease legibility, including for the professionals of the right. In this context, a Main risk can be occulted by laws which treat tiny risks. See: Legal security

In ecology

The Climate change is also a risk factor. Even if it is not sure that the forecasts catastrophists are carried out, one notes that the climatic Aléa S multiply, and can cause damage on the Actif S of the Entreprise. The industrial facilities are themselves risk factors for the vicinity or the environment, they are then regarded as ICPE.

Seek risk factors

The search for risk factors proves to be difficult because it has multiple complexities:

there exists for each case treated an infinity of risk factors, and to seek them all thus represents a spot of infinite duration,
the relevance of a risk is on the one hand a question of sensitivity, individual appreciation and belief, and on the other hand polluted by many external factors
there exist sometimes strong and indissociable interactions between the risk factors, which it is sometimes difficult to apprehend

To choose its risks

There exists an infinity of possible hazards. All do not affect same manner the projects. For example, the risk of explosion of an asteroid, fall of an aircraft or an attack is always present for all the human companies.

It is not nevertheless necessary for a computing project to treat and manage this risk while investing within the framework of the project. Two major points make it possible to eliminate this risks from our research:

effects on the " remain monde" of these events make additional their impact for the project
the wheel of action compared to this risk is weak, in any case for the team

project

Conversely, a warehouse in a zone of freight of an airport is much more directly concerned: this event seems much more credible even if the wheel of action remains weak.

The first action in the search for risk factors thus consists in choosing the risks which one will treat. They will be generally selected:

because they concern initially and directly the object of our research
because it is possible to act on these risks, and thus to justify an action
because they are credible and relevant

To identify the risk factors of the selected risks

Once chosen the risks which one wants to treat, it becomes easier to determine the factors of them: it is necessary to seek the objective facts present which have a positive or negative influence on the probability of occurrence of the unpleasant event.

Our carthésien spirit, the gained experience and the assistance of experts are to us of an invaluable help in this search for causality. It is necessary for us however to attract your atention on frequent errors:

not to confuse statistical correlation and causality: it is not because the majority of the people die in the hospital which the hospital is the cause of their death
to avoid the sequence in causality: the longer the chain is, the more the reasoning is likely to have defects
never not to confuse the present and the future: the present is a universe of established facts, whereas the future is by définiton unknown, and even if events are very probable, they are never sure

Application to medicine

A risk factor is a condition, a Pathologie or a behavior which make more probable occurred of a Maladie.

The medical risk factor can concern the individual;

For example, the Tabagisme makes more probable occurred of a Cancer of the lung (9 lung cancers out of 10 are developed by smokers. The active Tabagisme (and moindrement passive ) is thus a risk factor of the Lung cancer.

- a risk factor is however not always a causes direct: Thus, the molecules of Tar or the products resulting from the decomposition of the Radon accumulated by the sheets of Tobacco, present in smoke, can attack the organization, while making there transfer normal cells. The cause of cancer is the change, the nicotinism being one of the risk factor of this change.

- a risk factor is not “obligatory” , i.e. one can contract a disease without being exposed with this risk factor.

The medical risk factor can relate to a group, or the Company;

For example, the research of the intense Bronzage in the years 1960-1990 is a social phenomenon which increased the individual risk to develop a Cancer of the skin.
Le extreme case is the epidemic or the Pandémie. As example, the pandemic Risque related to the avian flu proves very complex, implying many risk factors.

Synergy S: The risk factors are not added, but multiply: if one presents several risk factors for the same disease, one multiplies the risks to have this disease. The opposite is true; to decrease the number of risk factor (e.g.: sedentariness, nicotinism, not protected sexual activity, under or overfeeding, etc) decrease the risk to contract a disease related to these factors. Certain factors (genetic or environmental), or the unforeseen one, escape our control however.

Practical application: Evaluation of the risk of trisomy

Evaluation of the risk of trisomy 21 during the Pregnancy August 1st

Application in cardiology

See " Risk factors cardiovascular "

Reference

Risk management , 100 questions to include/understand and act, Jean-Paul Louisot, Jacques Lautour, AFNOR and CARM Institute, 2005

INSTITUTE FOR the CONTROL OF the RISKS - Reliability - Management - Cindyniques
GEQseC Group of expert Quality Safety Environment CNAM
LIPSOR: Laboratory of Investigation in Futurology Strategy and Organization

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